On March 27, 2011 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 2319 W. Summit in Missoula. If you are looking for a Single-family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Single-family property, check out my site at wahlbergteam.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On March 27, 2011 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 2319 W. Summit in Missoula. If you are looking for a Single-family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Single-family property, check out my site at wahlbergteam.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On March 27, 2011 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 2319 W. Summit in Missoula. If you are looking for a Single-family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Single-family property, check out my site at wahlbergteam.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

On March 13, 2011 at 12:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 258 Todd Lane in Florence. If you are looking for a Single-family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Single-family property, check out my site at wahlbergteam.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 258 Todd Lane in Florence. This Single-family property has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Neat and clean foreclosed property located in the 8-mile area of Florence. This home features a large and open tri-level design with vaulted ceilings, bigbedrooms, and a basement that has been mostly finished (sheetrock/texture/paint complete) to add a family room, 4th bedroom, and bathroom. You’ll love the big kitchen with great storage and counter-space! The lot is 1.25 acres and is unimproved, ideal for someone to come in and landscape to their tastes!.

On March 06, 2011 at 13:00 PM, you are invited to an Open House at 2319 W. Summit in Missoula. If you are looking for a Single-family property in this area, don™t miss this rare opportunity to visit this magnificent property. For a preview of this Single-family property, check out my site at wahlbergteam.topproducerwebsite.com. Please do not hesitate to Contact Me if you have any questions or wish to schedule a private showing.

This home features many updates and has been wonderfully maintained by its current owners.   Some of the upgrades include tile and pergo  flooring, an expanded kitchen, and a brand new roof!   This house has 3 bedrooms + 2 bonus rooms, there’s also a large family room that has a wet bar/kitchenette area in the basement!

A very informative email from an insurance agent I highly recommend here in town:

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Hi-

Today™s Missoulian featured a front page article (below) about the possibility of flooding this Spring. As you talk with customers, please keep in mind that flood insurance is NOT included as part of a standard homeowner policy. Flood insurance must be purchased separately through a government sponsored program called The National Flood Insurance Program. Unless the insurance is required by a lender, there is a 30 day waiting period.Your local insurance agent has access to the National Flood Insurance Program and should be able to provide a flood insurance proposal upon request.

Remember the 30 day waiting period! Today is March 4^th. That means, if you purchased flood insurance today, the policy would not go into effect until April 4^th. What happens over the next few months remains to be seen. The weather will determine local flood conditions. Peak flow on the Clark Fork River through the Missoula Valley generally occurs sometime between mid-May and mid-June, so there is still a window to purchase flood insurance (even with the 30 day waiting period).  If you have questions regarding flood insurance, feel free to call me directly at 532-5845, or contact your local insurance agent.

From a historical perspective, the worst known flood in the Missoula Valley occurred in 1908. Here is an interesting article about the event:http://www.tworivershistory.net/the-dam-and-the-flood-of-1908.htmlHere is a small bit of information from the Missoula Office of Emergency Services as well:The 1908 flood caused Missoulians great distress. According to Robert J. Wheeler’s report entitled, Water Resource and Hazard Planning Report (1974), “the great flood of 1908 resulted from 33 consecutive days of spring rainfall coinciding with rapid snowmelt. These events produced the highest documented flood of memory on the Clark Fork and its tributaries and resulted in disastrous effects to transportation, homes, and other structures.

“Missoulian article:Officials: Signs point to flooding in western MontanaBy KEILA SZPALLER of the Missoulian | Posted: Friday, March 4, 2011 5:45 amThe last 100-year flood to hit Missoula was more than 100 years ago – in 1908.“If you believe in statistics, we’re due for (a big flood event) sometime soon,” said Todd Klietz, flood plain administrator for the Missoula County Office of Planning and Grants.Klietz, who offered up his warning Thursday at a meeting about flood risk this year, admitted he’s been called everything from Chicken Little to Noah. And while it may not be the big one this year, Ray Nickless, with the NOAA National Weather Service, evaluated some 40 years of snowpack and shared his conclusion that high water is on its way.“This year, we’re at 115 percent of average,” Nickless said of snowpack in the upper Clark Fork River basin. “So what does that mean? Flooding.”Some 30 people attended the meeting, the first public outreach of its kind, said Klietz. In part, the event took place because FEMA officials are in Montana anyway talking with folks on the Hi-Line where snowpack levels are at 200 percent in places. But Klietz’s phone also has been ringing with people worried about a big melt-off in these parts.Rissa Cloud of Missoula said she remembered seeing an enormous tree topple into the river last year near Maclay Flats and a blue heron taking flight to safety. She shared her concerns about flooding this year.“I’m worried and wondering if this spring we’re going to turn into Lake Missoula again,” Cloud joked.The bottom line from the analysis by Nickless is that Missoula has a 67 percent chance of getting close to the flood stage this year. This is a La Nina year, and that pattern brings normal or above normal snowpack.Snowpack in the Bitterroot looks about average this year – but the Bitterroot River floods more easily than the Clark Fork, he said. This year, with a lot of light and dry snow, snowpack in the upper Clark Fork is at 115 percent of average. In the Missoula Valley, snowfall is at 162 percent of average; precipitation is at 158 percent of average.March is forecasted to bring below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation on the whole, Nickless said. The weather come spring will determine if waters exceed the flood stage, but historically, above average snowpack brings what you might expect.“I believe we’re going to see high water this spring,” said Nickless, a hydrologist.At the meeting, FEMA’s Marijo Brady reminded people that flood insurance is not covered in homeowner policies. She said people in high-risk zones should buy insurance but said others also could see high water levels. The National Flood Insurance Program offers one-year policies and Brady encouraged people to insure their structure’s “replacement value,” or risk not seeing the full value of their claim.“This is your single largest investment in your lifetime,” Brady said.Thanks! Have a wonderful weekend.

Bill  

Bill Silverman

Payne Financial Group

PO Box 3327

145 W Front St Missoula, MT 59808  

406 532-5845(direct)   406 532-5838 (fax)     888 848-2910 (toll free)

bsilverman@pfg-insurance.com

 To our fellow clients, friends, and family;  

One of our favorite quotes on facing challenges comes from John F Kennedy.   When talking about the challenges our country was facing in the early 60™s and rising to the occasion in a speech before Rice University he said that, œWe choose to go the moon in this decade and to do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.   Over the last 4 months in the midst of re-franchising and re-branding our office we have had to make some hard decisions and face challenges like never before.   After a long and thorough process we have decided to close down the current RE/MAX office and join our forces with the local Windermere office.   We couldn™t be more excited about this move, the services we will provide to our clients are going to be increased, our local market presence will expand, and as we found out while meeting with the local Windermere ownership there are actually more Windermere agents in the Western USA than there are RE/MAX agents!   Most all of our group is also making the move to Windermere as well, so we™ll even be seeing many familiar faces in the office hallways.  

This is a big move for us, Windermere here in Missoula has an incredible professional reputation and an amazing community service program.   Beyond that the tools this office will provide us goes way above and beyond the tools we had at our previous office.   The changes you™ll all see will only be for the best.   Regardless of what office we work for though our commitment to working our best for all of you remains the same.   You™ll be able to still reach us on our cell phone numbers (529-4663 for Brint / 240-6988 for Judy) and our direct emails (brint@wahlbergteam.com and judywahlberg@gmail.com) also you can still reach us at 549-8855 or at our new office line of 541-6550.   And of course for many of you who might be wondering, we will still be continuing our tailgate party, so feel free during football season to stop by at our usual location and say hi!  

Hard challenges are best met with mental toughness and the fortitude knowing that we have what it takes to get things done.   We are ready for this new chapter in our careers and hope that you will continue to be a part of our ongoing careers.   We remain here to serve you and look forward to talking with you soon.   And as always, we are never too busy for your referrals!  

Sincerely,    

Brint and Judy

The Wahlberg Team

Sorry I’ve not blogged in over a month!   We’ve got a big announcement coming on Monday, stay tuned!

I’ll give you both sides of the argument and leave it up to you the readers to decide!   These numbers aren’t official as some records are usually a little delayed in reporting, but they’ll give you the general idea.   As always, my source is from the Missoula Organization of REALTORS(R) MLS.

2010 Sales Statistics for Missoula (Residential):

- 830 total sales.   Compare to 913 in 2009, a decrease of 9% in volume.   The peak year was 2006 which had 1443 sales so the 2010 numbers reflect a staggering 42.5% decrease from the peak.   What’s interesting though is this summer we saw a massive drought in sales once the tax credit ceased, which was projected nationally.   Now in traditionally slow holiday months we’ve seen some numbers in 2010 that aren’t that far off from the stimulus market of the year before that was propped up with the major tax incentive.   This December the MLS currently shows 56 total sales, last December we saw 50.   As we move forward keep in mind when comparing the stats forward to last year we’re matching up against an inflated late 2009 and early 2010.   The fact that this December without any government incentives was better than the last one is a big deal.

- 2010 median sales price finishes at $202,500.   Compare to $208,000 in 2009, a decrease in value of 2.6% in median values.   The peak year was 2006 that was $216,950 reflecting a total of a 6.7% median value decrease off the peak.   Here’s where this gets interesting, if you break apart the year into halves, we a median sales price for the first half of 2010 at $197,250 and then a median sales price in the second half shot up to $215,000.   Once again a post-tax credit market showed some signs of value recovery.   Half-way through the year I was projecting our median sales price on the year would finish under $200,000 but a stronger second half has helped that make a come-back.   This COULD be a sign that prices in Missoula have bottomed out to some extent or that the downward slide in values slowed considerably in the 2nd half.

———

Looking ahead to 2011 there’s some key factors that I think Missoulians should be watching for when considering being active in this housing market.

1. What kind of activity is going on in your direct price-range and your direct neighborhood.   Real estate is local on so many levels, just because a friend of yours can’t get their home sold that’s across town or in a different price bracket doesn’t mean your home is in the same conditions.   Certain price points and areas are selling better than others, find out where yours is.   Ask your  agent to research this, if they can’t or don’t know how, find a new one – knowing cross-sections within a market is key.

2. Keep an eye on employment.   Nationally good news is brewing that job opportunities are recovering, locally we’re hearing news that the Macy’s building downtown is on the verge of being purchased and remodeled, and that the large Smurfit-Stone mill has an offer and will be converted to a biomass power-plant.   While these activities will not get job levels back to where they were previously, they help.   Additionally if new construction can rebound a bit that will also have a major impact.   Think about how many people are needed to build a single house, or a single commercial building.   The more of that – the better.

3. Don’t put a lot of stock in comparing early 2010 to early 2009.   The tax credit did lots of good things and it also really screwed up statistical reporting.   A basic law of economics is that people respond to incentives, and last winter/spring was heavily incentive-laden while this winter/spring is not.   If the spring numbers can even stay close to last years that’s a major sign of positive recovery.

4. Get used to this new normal.   Since 2008 we’ve had 901 sales, 913 sales, and now 830 sales.   Since 2008 we’ve been working in a lending environment that has not had the NINA (no income-no asset) mortgages that we had seen in the years before.   So this market now reflects a lending environment that suggests a sustainable volume of houses in our market is probably in the 800 – 900 houses sold per year range, not the near-1500 we had back in 2006.

5. Watch the confidence.   Nationally consumer confidence is key and locally that will matter as well.   Back in November Lawernce Yun the NAR cheif economist said that keeping an eye on consumer confidence will be a major indicator to recovery in 2011.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 1519 Sherwood in Missoula. This Single-family property has 2 bedrooms and 1 baths. Located in the old westside neighborhood this home features an enormous shop (approx 1760 Sq Ft) that is heated with seperate access doors and has anadditional non-insulated large parking bay. There is a detached shed as well with electric to it. The home has a large living room with a fireplace that is plumbed for gas heat. Of the bedrooms the large one in back could also be used as a family room also there’s a window-less bonus room as well. Brand new roof, just put on in December!.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 738 Michigan in Missoula. This Single-family property has 3 bedrooms and 1 baths. An excellent opportunity awaits the right buyers with this large ranch-style home that sits on the end of a street in East Missoula. The main floor featuresthree large bedrooms and a good sized living room, in the basement you’ll find a couple of bonus rooms as well as plenty of unfinished area for furtherexpansion.

“American home values dropped $1.7 trillion”

http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/09/real_estate/home_value/index.htm?hpt=T2

Zillow is a very interesting and comprehensive site, in fact I noticed that just last week despite years and years of suggestions that REALTOR(R) organizations take the lead on ratings and reviews Zillow will now take the lead on ratings and reviews.   The continued crux of association leadership is the concern that, “what will this do to the agents that get bad reviews?!?” (To answer, push them out of the business hopefully!)   However there’s concern with leadership across the board that associations should not take aggressive steps such as ratings and reviews because the concern is on the lowest common denominator and not the high quality agents who are not afraid of public reviews.   It’s my opinion that we (as agents) should all be reviewed publicly and be able to counter or challenge basic “troll” attacks.   (Troll attacks, people spamming fake, usually negative, opinions or attacks on someone).

OK, so now back to the main article, the first thing that caught me as a probable error in many markets is that the 1st time home buyer tax credit “propped up” the housing market in terms of home values.   Not true, it did prop it up in terms of volume sold – but not median housing prices.   Most first time home buyers were not buying incredibly expensive houses, and with more activity on the lower-price range the median naturally shifted down, despite the activity picking up.   Pretty basic stuff, this happened in Missoula, the activity in certain price points ($0 – $150,000 and $150,000 – $200,000 especially) saw the median shift down, due higher 1st time home buyer activity.

Finally a warning against Zillow, it’s not accurate.   In many states and areas it is mostly on target, but in many others it isn’t.   Zillow gets its information from some public records and open MLS data.   But in many states (Montana being one, there’s 11 others including Texas, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, and Idaho).   So for our region, even the surrounding states Zillow is not gaining factual data, but usually pulling listing prices from public marketing sites hosted by REALTORS(R).   Even in disclosure states, Zillow can miss the mark, your most accurate source of is, and always will be, a REALTOR(R) MLS that has the sales prices and discloses any seller/buyer credits paid, etc – its your best bet.

Quickly lets just see how Zillow stacks up for Missoula, MT.   Zillow only represents the median list price ($229,000) which is fairly close, it’s actually $235,000.   What they can’t calculate is the more important number, the median sales price.   Going back 6 months, for single family homes (detached homes, condos, townhomes) the median sales price is $215,000.   The prior 6 months before that the median sales price in a market that was dominated with the 1st time home buyer tax credit saw a median sales price at $195,000.   That’s a pretty big shift, and shows that the activity was boosted but the activity was in lower price ranges shifting the median.   And then one more number, last year’s median over the same course of time was $204,000.   So Missoula appears to have bucked the trend?   Our median price shifted up $9,000 in the course of a year, however once again, look at the overall activity, now post tax credit the activity is now spread across all price points more evenly, which naturally will only cause that median price to climb back up.  

Basically, don’t believe the hype.   When you see this national doom and gloom news keep in mind these Zillow calculations don’t reflect on “us” in Missoula (or Montana) at all.   Additionally shifts in median values don’t always equate to lost value in homes.   Our markets are incredibly segmented right now (see my prior posts on stats within price-points) and it really is true when we say real estate is local.   These national stories are way to generic to reflect on our actual market.

Yesterday morning at the annual membership meeting for the Missoula Organization of REALTORS(R) I was awarded the 2011 REALTOR(R) of the year award (I will serve MOR as their REALTOR(R) of the year for the calendar year of 2011).   It’s an honor to be awarded this, it’s a recognition of my volunteer work, my professional practice, and the additional philanthropic duties I have been a part of.  

This recognition of my accomplishments is mostly in thanks to the supporting cast I have helping me all along the way.   First off my business parter and mother, Judy who has been by my side with my work and my life – without her help I could not have been able to be so passionately involved in REALTOR(R) volunteer work.   Also my wife who has been my rock, supporting me through all of my efforts and providing as much help as she can also bear as well.   My office-mates, the staff of MOR, the local board of directors, and all other REALTOR(R) volunteers and members have also been key in helping me to get to this point, and I want to thank everyone for believing in me and supporting me.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 195 Mountain View Drive in Missoula. This Single-family property has 2 bedrooms and 1 baths. A very cool log home being sold as a foreclosure in Victor. With a great setting and amazing views this home offers a unique opportunity for the right person looking for a log-home nestled in one of the most beautiful valleys in Montana. .

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/30/real_estate/CaseShiller_home_prices/index.htm?hpt=T2

“House prices fall 2% SIGNS OF DOUBLE DIP?!?!?!?!”

And then the article doesn’t even mention about the dreaded double dip.   Sometimes national news media really frustrates me they latch on to a story and suggest future fears and concerns but then never expand upon it at all.   Yet, in their title they say this might be signs of a double dip, and most people who see that article will only read some of the headlines and not the body of the print.   I’ll bet that a lot of people now are thinking that the nation is headed to a double dip, while if they would have read the entire piece there is no comment or speculation as to WHY or how a double dip would occur.

The article itself discusses the drop in house prices and the importance housing plays in this market.   Additionally it mentioned that there are mixed opinions on the future of prices and trends with a large shadow inventory of homes waiting to come onto the market however the improving jobs and confidence reports suggest that our economy might be able to handle this shadow inventory as it comes out.

So, one could infer that this article might mean that housing prices could fall again but it doesn’t even say  how much, when, and what issues could result from it.   Yes, this is a concern, however if CNN-Money is going to try to freak us out by saying a double dip is coming they should consider expanding upon that message rather than just putting it in the headline without directly addressing it.   It seems the national media would rather jump out at us and yell, “BOO!” than actually go into depth on this story.   The video is pretty good, they talk about people getting amazing deals and putting houses up to investors and home-owner occupant buyers at great prices, allowing a lot of once over-priced areas to become incredibly affordable again.    

Grrr!

Ok, quick numbers check on Missoula this year, going by median price (keep in mind Q1 2009 was mostly pre tax-credit):

2009 Q1: $235,000

2009 Q2: $209,000

2009 Q3: $206,906

2009 Q4: $199,000

2010 Q1: $215,000

2010 Q2: $193,500

2010 Q3: $201,480

———-

So interestingly enough, Missoula is up a bit, but you can see the pretty wild variation in the median price.   Q1 2009 there was a first time home buyer tax credit, however it was $7500 and there was a re-payment plan for it ($500 a year in your taxes) and come the middle of Q1 was when the $8000 credit as we know it came out, from there the 1st time homebuyer activity spiked and drove the median prices down.   Now what’s interesting is that 2010 Q3 and moving forward is post-tax credit for the most part, so how numbers will look from here on out will really give us an indication of how the market is.

So CNN says national house prices are down 2% from Q2 to Q3, but in Missoula they’re up 4.1% from Q2 to Q3.   However if you compare the 2009 Q3 to the 2010 Q3 you’ve got a price decrease of 2.6%.   At the REALTOR (R) convention I kept hearing about continued “choppy” waters – looking at these numbers suggests just that!

Here’s the charts, first one includes the outlier of Q1 2009 the second one removes that outlier, however you can see the trend that in general prices are still going down very gradually:

Check out this new Manufactured/Mobile property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 5975 Candlewick Lane in Missoula. This Manufactured/Mobile property has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. On 9 beautiful acres just a few miles from Missoula, this property features a 1997-built 3 bed / 2 bath manufactured home that is also included with the sale. Currently the home is not on permanant foundation. The house has some nice laminant flooring, great storage in the kitchen, valuted ceilings, and a mastersuite. The land has a lot of trees and offers awesome privacy. This would be an ideal place to live in the home while you build your Montana dream-home!.

Check out this new Manufactured/Mobile property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 223 A street in Victor. This Manufactured/Mobile property has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home sits right inVictor, it features a master suite, a large living room, an open kitchen, two yard sheds, and a fenced yard. Being sold as-is, this home makes for a greatproject for someone looking to put a little improvement work into a property.

Check out this new Manufactured/Mobile property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 9883 Common Drive in Clinton. This Manufactured/Mobile property has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. This nice 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on 1.02 acres with a 2car heated garage / shop. Property features a/c, shed, seasonal creek, deck, washer, dryer, open floor plan, landscaped yard, great views, and easy accessto I-90 at a affordable price. There is a large master-suite with it’s own private bathroom, and a good sized kitchen with a center island. The shop is heated and very large, there’s also an additional storage shed on the property.

In two days all across America  (as well as  Americans who are across seas) we  will celebrate Thanksgiving, giving thanks for all that they have in life as they reflect upon what they are thankful for.   For each one of us we are thankful for different things and I do hope that on Thanksgiving that each and every one of you can take time to reflect and give thanks either with friends or with family.

I am most thankful for my wonderful family.   My wife and kids are the joy in my life,  both my  parents and my wife’s parent  , my sister and her daughter, as well as  my  wife’s brother and sister and their families  are all a major part of my life and I would not wish it any other way.   I feel very fortunate that all of my direct family is here in town, spending time with them on the holidays is something I really do enjoy.  

Professionally I am thankful for the opportunities my board presidency has opened up for me.   Politics in the REALTOR(R) world is very much a busy and challenging task but it something I have a passion for and I look forward to continuing that pursuit at the higher levels.   Of course I am also thankful for all of my clients and business partners that I have had the opportunity to work with over the years.   I feel like I’ve made some great friendships and have really enjoyed being a part of so many people’s lives.

Additionally  I am thankful for our US troops, those that are serving overseas, at home, and even those who are now veterans.   Our country is free and it’s a  great place  because of the actions of our brave men and women who serve.   Thank you all for your dedication to your country.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, I hope this week for you is filled with fun times, good food, and safe travels.

- Brint

A major topic throughout the convention coming off the heels of a big election.   There was  a lot of talk in many of the meetings about what the most recent election means for homeowners, tax payers, and political action groups ahead.  

1. As mentioned in the prior post on gridlock, both Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala commented on gridlock being a good thing because it forces compromise rather than extreme laws to be passed.   This should be good for the common Americans, we won’t see far-reaching laws or massive slashing of programs, but hopefully something in the middle.

2. The major concern for all people talking on politics ahead was the budget deficit, however there were differing opinions on how to handle it.   Some ideas were; tax holidays to bring businesses back into the USA, extending the Bush tax cuts, revising and modifying the Bush tax cuts, raising taxes in general, firing hundreds of thousands of government contractors, scaling back or removing the newly passed health-care laws, and just riding things out and waiting for the slow recovery as expected.   No two people shared the same opinions, however many did comment that both parties in DC need to work together to get spending under control and work to more rapidly reduce our trade deficit.

3. Being that now eyes are turning to 2012 there was a lot of talk about who will run for president.   On the Republican side two names were commonly floated as currently somewhat unknowns that very well could get the GOP nomination.   Those two were Chris Christie the current governor of New Jersey and Mitch Daniels the governor of Indiana.   It was commented that this bucks the usual trend for GOP presidential nominees as usually the top choices are people that have run in prior campaigns and lost before.   Tucker Carlson a conservative pundit was very critical of the two politicians in the spotlight, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin.   He said that Romney’s undoing in the “Republican base” will be that when he was governor in Massachusetts he instituted a state-wide health care system which much of the national health care laws mirror.   Sarah Palin was viewed as “too polarizing” by many speakers and actually had a lot of conservative speakers nervous of losing middle-America in an election with her as the GOP nominee.   On the Democrat side it was pointed out that if another high-profile Democrat (Hillary was used as an example) runs against Obama it could shatter the moderate/centrist support for the Democrats this upcoming election cycle.   Many were doubtful someone like Hillary would run against Obama again in this cycle and there really wasn’t anyone that said Obama wouldn’t be the nominee.

4. There was a lot of hopeful talk that this would be a 1994 election cycle all over again, where after two years of full Democrat control the GOP took back the house (and Senate in 1994) and the next 6 years featured compromise and collaborative work between Democrat President Clinton and a GOP congress led by Newt Gingrich.   Up until the 2nd to last day I kept hearing that this could be the case, however when hearing the editor for Forbes speaking he pointed out that many of the Democrats who lost this most recent election cycle were moderates, so the party base has actually shifted to becoming more liberal – he was rather doubtful that this could be a 1994 repeat due to extreme opinions between the two parties.

5. In some housing-based politics, the National Association of REALTORS is preparing to go to battle on two major issues.   The first and foremost would be the possible restructuring or removal of the tax laws allowing homeowners to deduct their interest paid on their mortgages.   The second would be a similar measure except with 1031 tax-deferred exchanges where people can shelter money from investment properties by rolling capital gains into other investment properties without having to pay taxes on it.   Both moves are anticipated as something that will be heavily looked at to close the trade deficit gap and help get the government a little bit back on track with its spending.

In the elections the other week the economy was huge, it was also the main discussion point in many of the meetings I attended, I heard from NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun, a cheif editor from Forbes, and pundits Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala.  

The general consensus was that it’s a long haul ahead, there’s no quick answers and don’t look for overnight changes.   Generally speaking here’s the big things to look at over the next few years:

1. Expect continued unemployment for 2-3 years at least.   No one was optimistic that unemployment would dramatically improve anytime soon.   While there are positive gains in private sector hiring it won’t make a major impact like many would hope for.

2. Businesses and banks are sitting on tons of cash but refuse to spend it.   It was reported that nationally, US businesses are sitting on $3.5 trillion dollars (soon to be $4 trillion) and are just sitting on it rather than injecting cash into the markets by boosting corporate spending or making hires.   The only one “spending” right now is the government and that trend is due to wind down now due to the shift in leadership at least in the house.

3. Consumer confidence is sitting low but showing some recovery, Lawrence Yun said that if consumer confidence can continue to grow that could trigger some more business spending – if that happens growth could be more robust, but until then it’s going to be slow.

4. Banks are going to get more heat than ever before this year to lend money, if they actually follow through remains yet to be seen.

5. Gridlock in congress could be  a good thing, Tucker Carlson said that, “The dumbest ideas coming from DC usually emerge when one party rules all of the branches.”   He went on to reference that regardless your political ideology you can point to a time in DC when “the other party” had complete rule and made real dumb decisions.   What gridlock is meant to do is spur cooperation in decision making, which is what the founding fathers wanted, cooperation and middle-ground.

6. Globally things are very vibrant, and that will help the US.   Global activity and spending will boost GDP which will help knock down our massive defecit (to some extent).

7. Speaking of defecit, it was unanimously agreed by the speakers that the defecit must be tackled first and foremost.   It’s not popular but somehow taxes need to go up and spending needs to go down.   The government needs to get back onto better track or else things could get real bad.

8. Inflation concerns are growing, especially after the Fed has injected $600 million into the market.   The move by the Fed came with mixed reviews, some saying it was needed since the banks are refusing to do it, others saying it’s just going to have bad long-term effects with inflation.   A lot of the speakers were hinting that in 18-24 months inflation could start creeping into our market.

9. Some silver lining is that more market-savvy investors are seeing massive opportunities and preparing for a strong recovery.   The speaker from Forbes Magazine said that people like Warren Buffet making the bold moves they are today is showing that they recognize this is the “bottom of the market” and a strong recovery is on its way.

10. Furthermore it was pointed out that a double-dip will not occur, according to all who spoke.   Housing has recovered after a pre-warned big dip after the tax credits expired, gold is strong, GDP is recovering, growth is slightly up, unemployment is not dropping anymore.   The slow recovery is in effect and a double-dip does not seem to be a concern right now.

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So overall it’s a mixed bag, some good stuff, some bad.   I was hoping for more overall optimism, and didn’t get that.   However the message was clear that prices and rates we’re seeing today are going to go away within the next year or so.   People looking to take advantage of this market and who have the power to do so should be taking action now.  

Tomorrow I’m flying to New Orleans to attend the National Association of REALTORS(R) Convention.   It will be one of the last few duties tasked to me as board president of MOR, to attend and present at the association on behalf of the delegate body that I represent.   It should be a crazy busy weekend, I’m serving on the national communications committee, I’m hoping to attend a lot of the YPN (young professionals network) events, and I’ve got plenty of things to check out with presentations on the market, the economy, what to expect in the year ahead, and what yesterday’s election means to all of us.

I’ll be back on Monday – so next week be on the lookout for some updates, I’ll probably be full of new information to share!

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/25/news/economy/existing_home_sales/index.htm?hpt=T2

Some very good news on the national scene, we’re seeing housing units still recovering in a post-tax credit market.   I remember my 1st day in economics class when my professor told me, “People respond to incentives,” and so last year’s numbers and activity shows that the  overall action was inflated  due to a great tax-credit  for many 1st time home buyers.   There  has been a lot of talk about the post-tax credit market, and that it would dip but then slowly recover.   So far, that suggestion (coming from NAR cheif economist Lawrence Yun) is exactly what we’re seeing nationally.   A 10% increase from September  from August is pretty huge.

So lets take a quick peek at Missoula’s numbers, and the greater Western-Montana area as well too:

Missoula Sales Volume:

August  2010: 56 sales   /   September 2010: 69 sales – a  23% increase

Greater Western Montana Sales Volume:

August 2010:  115 sales   /   September 2010: 134 sales  - a 16.5% increase

* All of these numbers are from the Missoula Organization of REALTORS(R) MLS.   The “greater western Montana” region includes some over-lapping markets in the Bitterroot Valley, the Mission Valley, and most of the southern Flathead lake area but largely excludes the Northwestern (Kalispell) market.

So… good news!   Granted there is plenty of murky waters still ahead with winter approaching in a traditionally slower time for our market.   Also as the CNN article suggests the halt in foreclosure sales could lead to some bumps in lack of overall inventory and slowed investor activity too.   I can’t speak personally for the entire Missoula market, however with an asset management company that I work for we’ve got 6 properties we’re working on getting out, so while nationally they might see a lack of foreclosure inventory to purchase, Missoula might see a bit of a bump which will be both good and bad.   Opportunities this fall/winter will be plenty, that will allow for great opportunities for investment purchases at probably some of the lowest prices seen in over a decade.   However that will hurt more existing home owners who will probably see further market valuation decline through the winter.

Check out this new Single-family property that I just posted on my Web site. It is at 216 Brighton in Lolo. This Single-family property has 5 bedrooms and 1 baths. Sold As-Is, bids can be submitted at www.HUDHomestore.com, or contact listing agent. This home has pergo floors on the main level, 3 good sized bedrooms, and a partially fininshed basement. The basement has been framed and mostly sheet-rocked but needs some finish work and carpeting. Two bedrooms with closets and egress windows on the lower level, they just need a little more finish work! Plumbed for 2nd bathroom downstairs as well. Also this house has an amazing back yard you have to see!.